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17 May 2018
Jurys Inn Aberdeen, Guild Street, Aberdeen ABERDEEN AB11 5RG
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  • 2018-05-17 18:00:00 2018-05-17 20:00:00 Europe/London So you think you understand risk? Don't forget to book your place on the APM website Jurys Inn Aberdeen, Union Square, Guild Street, Aberdeen, AB11 5RG Jurys Inn

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Scotland branch

So you think you understand risk?

Jurys Inn Aberdeen, Union Square, Guild Street, Aberdeen, AB11 5RG

In this talk, Paul Foy will investigate some aspects of risk not commonly addressed in project management such as black swans, our ability to see into the future, accuracy of our perception of risk and the value of intuition. What can we do to protect ourselves against difficult to manage risks and how far should we go?

Good risk management can be the difference between a successful and an unsuccessful project. But how well, as project managers, do we understand the nature of risk?

Our perception of risk is sometimes flawed. Factors such as closeness, recency, habit and culture, influence the way we behave in our personal and professional lives. So how do we become aware of these influences and how can we overcome any bias they may cause?

There are future events that we simply cannot predict, often called black swans. What exactly is a black swan and is there anything we can do about them? Is it possible to see into the future? When we try to predict an outcome, what factors are at play?

How effective are our mitigations? Are some of them a waste of time and resource? Is insurance a good mitigation?

What part does ‘gut feel’ play in our approach to risk? Should intuition be trusted, or should we rely more on tools such as risk registers and Monte Carlo models? Are there lucky and unlucky projects? Can we make ourselves luckier?

How can we use these issues most effectively to increase our chances of project success?

Paul goes out to answer these questions using established research, current thinking in the world of risk management and his own experience as a risk practitioner. The talk promises to be informative, amusing and thought provoking.

Paul Foy has worked in the oil and gas industry for 36 years including eight years as a project manager. In the earlier years of his career, he was an engineer in the field of measurement and control. Paul has specialised in project management with a particular focus on risk management. Paul’s work provides high value in the areas of lessons learned, conflict resolution/arbitration, decision making and planning, specialising in qualitative and quantitative risk management methods.

He is a chartered engineer, holds a MEng, an MSc in Project Management and a BSc in Psychology. He is a member of the APM and lectures in risk management at the University of Aberdeen.

This event is suitable for professionals up to an intermediate level of experience. 

Future events and branch information can be found on the branch community page. 

Previous presentations and webinars can be viewed on the APM Slideshare and YouTube channels.


APM Body of Knowledge reference

Section Description
3.5 Risk management

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