We make risk assessments every day, and generally we do them well. Most of us look both ways before looking the road, and in the same way most of us will survey a site before we allow our projects to start digging.
Project risk analysis and management mini-guide
This mini-guide is a short form of the APM publication, Project Risk Analysis and Management (PRAM) Guide 2nd edition.
It provides an introduction to the processes involved in project risk analysis and management, offering a simple, but robust and practical framework to help new practitioners get started. Some of the commonly used techniques and methods are described; a more comprehensive list and description can be found in the full APM guide.
Project risk analysis and management can be used on all projects, whatever the industry or environment, and whatever the timescale or budget.
In this guide, the term ‘PRAM’ encompasses processes, techniques and methods that enables the analysis and management of the risks associated with a project. Properly undertaken, it will increase the likelihood of successful completion of a project to cost, time and performance objectives.
So what actually is a 'black swan'? The term goes right back to the 2nd Century. There is a record of the Roman poet Juvenal referring to a black swan as something presumed not to exist. It was also a common phrase in 16th Century London...