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We make risk assessments every day, and generally we do them well. Most of us look both ways before looking the road, and in the same way most of us will survey a site before we allow our projects to start digging.
So what actually is a 'black swan'? The term goes right back to the 2nd Century. There is a record of the Roman poet Juvenal referring to a black swan as something presumed not to exist. It was also a common phrase in 16th Century London...