The striking similarities between the Kübler-Ross Change Curve and the ‘Hockey Stick Effect’

In the middle of some internal training recently here at the Met Office on benefits in the portfolio, programme and project (P3M) process, we got onto a discussion on change and transformational activity, and how difficult it can sometimes be to alter engrained culture and convention. I drew on the whiteboard the Kubler Ross Change Curve. Later in that same session, we started talking about benefits realisation and how that this is slow, or sometimes gets worse, before it gets exponentially better (e.g. through the need to train, or dual running).

At the end of the day, I stepped back to look at the white board, and it suddenly occurred to me on seeing both those drawn images together, that they were not just visually similar - they had other shared parallels too.

Change is an inevitable part of both personal and professional life. Two models that help us understand the dynamics of change are the Kübler-Ross Change Curve and the Hockey Stick Effect. And so, while these models originate from different contexts, they share striking similarities in how they describe the progression through change and the realisation of benefits.

The Kübler-Ross Change Curve

Formulated by Swiss psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross, delineates the emotional phases individuals experience when confronting substantial change or loss. Initially presented in her 1969 book "On Death and Dying," the model encompasses five stages:

Denial: The initial response to change or loss, where individuals may reject the reality of the situation.
Anger: As denial diminishes, anger often surfaces, directed at oneself, others, or the situation.
Bargaining: Individuals may attempt to negotiate or make deals to avert the change or loss.
Depression: A period of sadness and hopelessness as the reality of the situation becomes apparent.
Acceptance: Ultimately, individuals come to terms with the change or loss and begin to move forward.

These stages are not necessarily experienced in a sequential order and can overlap or recur. The model has been extensively applied beyond personal grief to comprehend reactions to organisational change and other significant life events.

The Hockey Stick Effect

In program and project management, the term "hockey stick effect" refers to a phenomenon where the benefits or outcomes of a project exhibit slow or flat growth initially, followed by a sharp increase later. This pattern resembles the shape of a hockey stick when plotted on a graph, with the long handle representing the initial slow growth and the blade representing the sudden rise.

Key points of the Hockey Stick Effect include:

Initial slow growth: At the outset of a project, progress and benefits may appear minimal. This phase can be attributed to the time required for planning, setup and initial implementation.
Sudden increase: After the initial phase, once the project gains momentum, the benefits start to increase rapidly. This can be due to the cumulative effects of the efforts invested during the early stages.
Sustainability: The sharp rise in benefits often continues until the project reaches its peak performance, after which it may stabilise or grow at a more consistent rate.

Similarities between the models

Despite their different origins, the Kübler-Ross Change Curve and the Hockey Stick Effect share several similarities:

Initial phase of minimal progress: Both models describe an initial phase where progress or acceptance is slow. In the Kübler-Ross model, this is characterised by denial and anger, while in the Hockey Stick Effect, it’s the period of slow growth.
Critical turning point: Both models feature a critical turning point. In the Kübler-Ross model, this is the transition from depression to acceptance. In the Hockey Stick Effect, it’s the point where benefits start to increase rapidly.
Acceleration and stabilisation: After the turning point, both models describe a phase of rapid progress. In the Kübler-Ross model, this is the acceptance stage, where individuals begin to move forward. In the Hockey Stick Effect, it’s the sharp rise in benefits, followed by a period of sustained growth.

Implications for change management

Understanding these models can provide valuable insights for managing change:

Patience and persistence: Recognising that initial slow progress is normal can help maintain patience and persistence.
Effective communication: Communicating the expected progression through these stages can help manage stakeholder expectations.
Monitoring and adjustment: Regular monitoring and adjustments are crucial to ensure the change process stays on track.

Implications for benefits in P3M

The Hockey Stick Effect model has specific implications for project management, particularly in understanding and managing the realisation of benefits:

Expectation management: Project managers should set realistic expectations with stakeholders about the timeline for seeing significant benefits. The initial slow growth phase can be frustrating, but understanding the hockey stick effect can help manage these expectations.
Resource allocation: During the initial phase, it’s essential to allocate resources effectively, knowing that immediate returns may not be visible. Investing in planning, setup and initial implementation is crucial for the eventual rapid increase in benefits.
Motivation and morale: Keeping the team motivated during the slow growth phase is vital. Highlighting small wins and progress can help maintain morale until the project reaches the turning point.
Sustainability Planning: As benefits start to increase rapidly, it’s important to plan for sustainability. Ensuring that the project can maintain its peak performance and continue to deliver benefits over time is key to long-term success.

By drawing parallels between the Kübler-Ross Change Curve and the Hockey Stick Effect, we can better navigate the complexities of change, whether in personal development or project management. Understanding these models helps us anticipate challenges, manage expectations and ultimately achieve successful outcomes.